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The last six days can really be divided into two phases. At the end of last week, which coincidentally coincided with the end of the third quarter of the year, the price of Bitcoin really fought against all odds to stay in its consolidation channel, the American stock indexes floated at the lowest levels of 2022. The new The quarter started with a bang on US stock exchanges, with the cryptocurrency market also rising in the process. However, it may not have the power of a stock market recovery, at least for now. Let’s just whisper it, but the price of Bitcoin has had a more gold-like action in recent weeks. The question that no doubt arises is: is the correlation with the stock market breaking down?
Gemini’s Cameron Winklevoss asked the same question last week. “Bitcoin has held up extremely well in recent weeks as the exchange has lost trillions of dollars. I don’t know if it’s the bottom of the wave, but there is a curious separation. Are people starting to reconsider the “crash insurance” thesis? »
According to the correlation matrix produced by in the blockthe latter still exists, although it has decreased slightly in recent weeks.
“Correlations with stocks have really come down in the last few weeks, but they still remain quite high,” said Lucas Outumuro, director of research at the same research firm. The latter is of the opinion that it is still too early to think about erasing this correlation, confirming that it may on the contrary strengthen again, citing “risks of reduced liquidity due to increases in interest rates. [de l’assouplissement quantitatif] continue to put pressure on risk assets, including crypto.”
“The correlation between BTC and the S&P500 reached historical highs since March 2022 as both markets were impacted by FED actions and other macro events,” said Nate Madry, Director of Research at Coin Metrics. “Historically, BTC has not been strongly correlated with the stock market, so it is always possible that the tides will start to turn towards a lower correlation. But at this point, the data doesn’t show any significant breakout.”
Not a week goes by without new information coming out about the saga with crypto lending company Celsius. According to the Financial Times, former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky withdrew $10 million from the company’s account in May, weeks before the defunct company froze customer withdrawals. Prior to this large withdrawal, Mashinsky reportedly withdrew small amounts of cryptocurrency to pay his taxes. The company’s remaining assets will soon be auctioned. The timing of the sale of Celsius’ assets was disclosed according to a filing by the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. The deadline for submitting bids is October 17, and if necessary, an auction will be held on October 20, 2022. The request states that the court anticipates a large number of expected bidders. Although nothing has been formalized yet, Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of FTX, is expected to be among the most active during this auction.
According to a CNBC report, payments giant MasterCard launched today CryptoSecure, new software designed to help banks and other card issuers identify and block suspicious transactions from cryptocurrency exchanges. A similar system is already in place for MasterCard national currency transactions, with the technology already being extended to Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.
After rising sharply over the year, the US dollar strength index has slipped several percentage points in recent days. Alongside the stock market recovery, the context appears to be in place for Bitcoin to now return north of $20,000. For the move to have enough traction to continue higher to the 22k-23k resistance, it will need to break The 50-day moving average sharply and with volume to become support.
On-chain data shows that whales, those entities that have at least 1,000 BTC, have withdrawn their assets from exchanges at a level not seen in four years. This is often a bullish sign, with cryptocurrencies putting their cryptocurrencies on long-term hold rather than being ready to trade.
Finally, note that the Bitcoin Dominance Index is also trying to break the resistance level established during the month after falling below 40% in late summer. If it comes to that, the chances of BTC leading the bounce are even higher.
Therefore, the fund is currently fully invested in BTC.
This article is brought to you by Fonds Rivemont. The Rivemont Crypto Fund is Canada’s first and only actively managed cryptocurrency fund. RRSP and TFSA eligible. Accredited investors can learn more here.
Disclaimer: This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of CryptonewsFR and does not constitute investment advice or trading instructions..
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